Sunday, April 7, 2013

How to fill in the chainladders with the data of the inventory, sales and purchase (part one)


Previously I did a lot the chainladders filled up with the claim data of the insurance business to look into the development and the trend of the incurred claims. Not only I had to find and gather the claim data for those chainladders, but I also did the interpretation and projected the trend of the upcoming incurred claims on the quarterly basis.
At that time the regional team header used to tell me that the other significant business data could also be analyzed through those chainladders. To extend this idea, I have determined the data of the inventory, sales and purchase for the chainladders to give us more business information. See below the example.



Given that the purchase results from the current inventory less the beginning inventory plus sales, we can build the development and the trend of these three items from the actual data at each end of the time from the past to the present and the estimate projected data for the future. The process is shown below.